Olive Branch Optimism
what a wonderful world...
Sunday, July 23, 2006
No one cares about Lebanon.
So Lebanon is being invaded by Israel, or should I say bombed? Or should I say "turned backward by 20 years"? Yet who really gives a rats ass? Who here in Perth, Western Australia could give even 1/10th of a shit? Other than our large Lebanese population, or someone whose' relatives are stuck there on a holiday- absolutely no one (except me of course).

The news here consentrates on the evacuation of Australian citizens who are terrified by bombs falling all around them. Oh poor them. They are in a protected international zone where Israel would never dare drop a bomb, and Hezbollah are not that stupid; while they have some international attention and even limited support they will make the most of it. They will try their best to impress. They will turn people against Israel by both inflicting damage on the Israeli Defense Force, and by showing the world the damage Israel is inflicting upon the Lebanese civilian populations & infrastructure.

In this kind of a war, where a conventional army from a foreign nation is invading a country in order to fight a rebel group, terrorist organization, islamic militia, whatever your preffered lingo; there is a big problem. The victor is the one who survive's longest, and in this instance, the victor will be Hezbollah.

Israel cannot and will not occupy the whole of Lebanon, and for as long as they continue their current foreign policy without consideration of their Arab neighbours; Israel will continue to create more and more enemies. Each of these enemies will side with Hezbollah. For as long as one member of Hezbollah survives then Hezbollah is winning. The aim of Guerilla warfare is to outlast your enemy and inflict as much damage as possible upon him in the time he remains on your soil. Hezbollah is not in Israel and this is not a war to extract the Shia militia from Israeli soil; this is a mission to take the extremism out of South Lebanon's Shia, but I'm afraid that neither force nor fear can do that.

The only way Israel can destroy Hezbollah is to remove the conditions which allow Hezbollah to thrive; they must allow the Palestinian's a self-sustainable state. They must allow neighbouring countries the use of their land for travel. They must not attack and destroy as the response to any small event which does not go in their favour.

I am not an anti-Israeli. I am not an anti-Zionist loonie. I do not believe in the destruction of the state of Israel. But if this continues by the Israeli book, as it has done for decades, then this war can only end in one way:

Israeli defeat.

The international communities patience is not running out as the media suggests. The US are not going to intervene. The European Union is not going to come together over this issue and release a strong statement condemning Israel's actions. The Arab leaders are not going to unite under one banner. Arab nationalism is not going to be reborn. Islamic extremism WILL continue to thrive until the day that Arab discontentedness is addressed and Arab youth's are given a voice in this world and the chance to direct their own future. Until then who else can they turn to but the feiry local Sheihk, with his god abiding sermon?
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