Iraq is about to have its chance to elect a new government,
Unfortunately, even if there is 100% clarity of counting and no fruad, only one group is strong enough to win the election.
While al-Sadr had formed a coalition with Sunni parties, there was hope for Iraq's future. No matter who they are, it is not good to have a single uncontested government.
While Sadr was helping Sunni's present an opposition, there was hope for the removal of current Iran-backed US-appointed government. There was hope that the parties would argue and cause rifts and eventually turn people away from fundementalism and away from these fundamentalist parties. There was hope that any victory would be contested and concessions would have to be made by ALL SIDES.
It is still possible that the Shiite bloc parties- SCIRI, Badr's and Sadrists, will split even before the election is held- but this is a feint hope, and could spell out another SCIRI/DAAWA/KURD government.
The best hope we have now is that Allawi's Secular group links-up with the Kurdish Allaince and pulls in some other groups including Sunni's to pose some kind of worthy opposition...
I think the best thing to try and achieve would be causing infighting between Sadrists and SCIRI/Badr, and hope they end up splitting.
if Sadr was out on a limb on his own, SCIRI/Badr's would not fare very well at all- because the support they did have has come into deep question after this government.
The Kurdish Alliance has strength, and will win in its areas. If the Sunni groups could join with the Kurdish Allaince and bring in the Secular group of Allawi, this would pose an opposition to any coalition- atleast enough to create changes later, and contest election results and maybe avoid civil war.
Anyway, that is my current opinion on the coming election in Iraq, but this post's main point was to tell everyone that Hassan
and I will be following and posting about the Iraqi Blogosphere's coverage of the election- and probably frequently I will change my opinion as I learn more from said coverage!
well, I have pretty much finished Uni for the year, only one exam to go- and am about to make Roast for dinner tonight, so life is great.
Had a fun evening last night and have spoken to a lot of kind and considerate people through this blog in the last few months, I just wanted to thank you all for reading and emailing- even if there is not many comments left.
I didn't expect to have 2000 hits in my first 7 months, (even if 800 of them are me!), and I didn't expect to make the friends I have made.
I also never thought I would have written over 100 posts in this time.
It is thanks to the writings of other Bloggers, and the support of my readers.
So again- thanks, and don't stop reading/writing/commenting